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I'm fixated on who made a tidy profit from operational information that culminated in the capture of Maduro. There are rumors on the Internets that it was Donald Trump. Let's be clear: At the time of this writing, there is no credible evidence tying him to these bets, insinuating that this would be irresponsible without evidence.
What we know so far: Three new accounts were opened on Polymarket days before the Venezuelan invasion. Collectively, they won $630,484.00 on bets that Maduro would be removed from office. The bets were placed hours before the announcement. The timing is essential. It raises three possibilities, one of which is illegal. 1. The bettors traded on non-public government information; 2. They bet on inference from unusual public signals. 3. They were very, very, very, very lucky.
Number 3 strikes me as out of the realm of possibility. Number 2 is probably legal, and, given the Administration's track record on security, it is also a possibility. Number 1 is illegal and quite disturbing. So what likely happened? To assess that question, we'll create a capability map to see which officials had the necessary information at relevant decision points. We'll also assess their risk of legal jeopardy.
Tier 1 - Decision Principals (earliest, most precise access)
This is the President and his top security advisors. They have access to final decision memos, timing windows, and coordination details.Risk profile: Highest. Any trading here would be serious.
Tier 2 - Operational and Legal Gatekeepers
This is the Joint Chiefs, SOUTHCOM, and the White House Counsel.Risk profile: Very high
Tier 3 - Interagency & Intelligence
These are actors who see converging indicators. CIA regional desks, State Department regional officials. They have substantial directional certainty, but they lack information on exact timing.Risk profile: High, but more diffuse.
Tier 4 - Political & Communications Circle
These are Senior White House communications staff and outside confidants. They may not have general knowledge, but unless they were invited into a Hegseth chat, they lack timing information.Risk profile: Moderate, but non-trivial.
Tier 5 - Government contractors
These are defense contractors, IT staff, scheduling staff, and travel coordination staff.Risk profile: Variable; often underestimated.
Where do the facts fit in? Three new accounts were opened days before the event. That suggests it was event-driven rather than long-term speculation. This likely eliminates tier 5. The bets were made hours before the announcement. This strongly implicates tiers 1 and 2. The timing was too precise for inference.
But nothing is ever quite straight with these guys. The President and his senior advisors were watching the invasion unfold from a make-shift "war room" at Mar-a-Lago. That's not a secure facility. We know they've had high-level discussions in that club in the past. Can we be sure they've tightened security since then? Regular guests could have inferred something was up days in advance, then watched it unfold that night. Mar-a-Lago guests have the lowest risk profile: It is legally permissible to infer conclusions and bet on them.
So where do we stand?
If you believe, as I do, that Tier 2 has a deep institutional commitment to national security, then the bettors were likely Tier 1 members. And that's not good. But we can't dismiss the possibility that lax — non-existent? — security at Mar-a-Lago allowed some guests to sniff out the possibility of impending action, then watch it unfold in real time on a Friday night. And that, I suppose, is the benefit of club membership.